What the Numbers Actually Mean for New Yorkers This Summer
Every week, the NYPD releases a document called CompStat — a dense table of crime complaint numbers organized by category, borough, and time period. Most news coverage turns those numbers into headlines. This piece does something different: it translates what’s actually happening into the question you’re probably asking — is the city safer than it was, and should I be changing how I move through it?
The short answer, based on the most recent citywide CompStat data available from the NYPD: yes, most major crime categories are meaningfully down in 2026 compared to last year, and the reductions are concentrated in the categories that affect everyday life most directly — robbery, burglary, and auto theft. Here’s how to read that, and what to watch.
The Headline Numbers — And What They Mean
Through the week ending May 17, 2026, the NYPD’s citywide CompStat report shows overall major crime is down 6.23% year-to-date compared to the same period in 2025 — that’s 40,403 incidents in 2026 versus 43,088 at this point last year, a difference of roughly 2,685 fewer reported crimes. That’s not a rounding error. It’s a sustained, multi-month trend across nearly every major crime category.
Here’s what that looks like in categories most residents actually encounter:
Murder: down 25.2%. Through mid-May, there have been 89 murders in New York City in 2026, compared to 119 at the same point in 2025. For context, that 25% reduction extends a longer trend. The first four months of 2026 saw just 76 murders citywide — a recorded all-time low, breaking the previous record of 86 set in 2018. April alone recorded 19 murders, the fewest ever for that month in recorded New York City history. Staten Island has had zero murders so far this year.
Robbery: down 10.5%. Robbery — the category that includes muggings, purse-snatching, and theft by force or threat — has fallen to 4,682 incidents year-to-date, compared to 5,231 last year. That’s 549 fewer robberies. For a resident, robbery is one of the most acutely felt crimes because it happens in public, often suddenly. A 10% drop is real.
Burglary: down 19.2%. This is the category that tells you something about how safe your home or business is while you’re not there. At 3,927 incidents year-to-date, burglary is tracking toward its lowest full-year total in at least a decade. The first quarter alone recorded burglaries at the second-lowest level in the city’s entire recorded history, down 20.6% compared to Q1 2025.
Auto theft: down 10%. Grand larceny auto has dropped to 4,218 incidents year-to-date from 4,688 last year. If you park on the street in New York City, this category affects your daily risk calculation.
Felony assault: down 0.7%. This one is essentially flat — 10,644 this year versus 10,714 last year. The drop is real but modest. Felony assault (serious physical attacks) is the category least moved by this year’s trends.
Grand larceny: down 4.1%. At 16,031 incidents year-to-date, this covers theft without force — pickpocketing, package theft, fraud. Down, but this remains the most common major crime category in the city by volume.
Gun Violence: Where 2026 Is Making History
Shooting incidents and shooting victims are the statistics that proxy for gang activity and the most serious street violence. In 2025, New York City recorded the fewest shooting incidents in the city’s modern history. In 2026, that pace has held.
Through mid-May, there have been 218 shooting incidents citywide, compared to 238 at the same point in 2025 — a reduction of 8.4%. Shooting victims are down 9.9%, from 282 last year to 254 this year. The first quarter of 2026 tied the all-time low of 139 shooting incidents recorded in Q1 2025.
In April 2026, shooting incidents fell 18.6% compared to April 2025, and shooting victims dropped 19.3%. The NYPD attributes part of this to ten gang-related takedowns completed since the start of the year, along with the seizure of 1,600 guns citywide.
What does this mean for residents? Gun violence in New York City is still concentrated geographically — it is not evenly distributed across all neighborhoods. But the overall trajectory, down year-over-year and approaching historic lows, is meaningful context for understanding your city.
The Longer View: How 2026 Compares to the City’s History
Context matters enormously when reading crime statistics. New York City in 2026 is not the New York City of 1990 — and the numbers make that clear. The NYPD’s CompStat historical data shows that in 1990, the city recorded 527,257 total major crime complaints. In all of 2025, that figure was 121,652. The city has reduced major crime by roughly 77% over 35 years.
The previous benchmark most often cited is 2018, which at the time represented a modern crime low. The records being set in 2026 — fewest murders in the first four months, fewest April murders ever recorded — are being set against that 2018 baseline. The city is not just maintaining historic progress; it is extending it.
For the resident asking “is the city getting safer?” — yes, by the numbers, and the current moment is near the bottom of a very long decline.
What’s Not Going Down: Two Categories to Watch
Honest crime data translation requires flagging the categories that aren’t moving in the same direction.
Rape reports are up 7.3% year-to-date (812 vs. 757 incidents). The NYPD and state officials attribute a significant portion of this increase to the Rape is Rape Act, signed in September 2024, which expanded the legal definition of rape in New York State to include additional forms of sexual assault. Of all rape reports filed year-to-date, 21% result directly from this expanded legal definition. The NYPD has also increased its outreach to survivors to encourage reporting. The 24-hour NYPD Special Victims Division hotline is 212-267-RAPE (7273).
Transit crime is essentially flat. Subway crime year-to-date is up 0.2% (816 vs. 814 incidents) — essentially unchanged from 2025. For the daily subway rider, 2026 looks like 2025 underground. That’s notably different from above-ground trends, and it’s worth knowing if the subway is part of your daily life.
The Summer Plan: What’s Different Starting June 2026
Beginning June 1, 2026 — today — the NYPD launched what it describes as the largest summer deployment in recorded history. The Summer Violence Reduction Plan will deploy up to 3,800 uniformed officers on nightly foot posts across 72 zones in 40 precincts, public housing developments, and the subway system.
The zone strategy is a continuation of the Winter Violence Reduction Plan, which ran from January through May. During the winter deployment, major crime fell 22.7% and shooting incidents dropped 62.5% within the designated zones during deployment hours. The Bronx zones in particular saw zero youth-related shootings under the Youth Safety Zone program since its September 2025 launch.
What this means practically: If you live or work in one of the 72 designated zones, expect increased foot patrol presence through the summer. The zones are concentrated in areas that historically see spikes in warm-weather violence — the NYPD has not published a public map of all 72, but they are clustered in precincts across all five boroughs where shooting incidents have historically concentrated.
Public Housing and the Subway: Two Separate Realities
New York City’s crime statistics don’t tell a single story — they tell several, and residents in different environments experience very different conditions.
In public housing, 2026 has brought historic reductions. Year-to-date through mid-May, overall crime in NYCHA developments is down 10.2% (1,956 vs. 2,179 incidents). Murders in public housing are down dramatically — 41.7% in the first four months alone. Shootings in housing are down more than a quarter compared to last year.
The subway is a different picture. As noted, subway crime is essentially flat year-to-date. In April specifically, transit crime ticked up 1.2% — just two more incidents than April 2025, which is statistically meaningless, but a signal that the subway is not participating in the same downward trend visible above ground. Last year was the safest year on the subway since 2009 (excluding pandemic years). 2026 is tracking roughly even with that.
For subway riders: the environment is at a modern baseline low, but it has not continued to improve the way street crime has.
How to Use This Information
Crime statistics are a population-level tool. They tell you about aggregate trends across millions of people — they don’t predict what will happen to you on a specific block at a specific time. That said, they’re useful for calibrating expectations, making informed decisions about where to live or work, and understanding whether the environment around you is changing.
A few practical takeaways from this data:
If you’re worried about home security, the burglary numbers are the most relevant. They’re down significantly — but residential burglaries still happen, and the NYPD’s data shows residential burglaries are also down nearly 20% this year. Basic measures (secure locks, well-lit entryways, package delivery notifications) remain the most effective personal risk mitigators.
If street safety is your concern, robbery is your primary data point. Down 10.5% citywide, with the Bronx leading all boroughs in reductions. Awareness of your surroundings, particularly at night and in transit hubs, remains the most actionable guidance regardless of trend lines.
If you ride the subway daily, treat transit crime as its own category — separate from street trends. The subway is at a modern low baseline, but it has not been part of the 2026 improvement story the way the rest of the city has.
The Bottom Line
New York City in June 2026 is recording crime at levels that would have been unimaginable 35 years ago, and 2026 is extending that trend with several categories hitting all-time lows. Murder is down a quarter. Burglary is approaching record territory. Gun violence is at its modern floor. The Summer Violence Reduction Plan adds the largest officer deployment in city history beginning today.
The honest caveat: crime data is a lagging indicator, it’s preliminary and subject to revision, and averages don’t tell you about your specific neighborhood. The NYPD’s CompStat 2.0 tool at compstat.nypdonline.org lets you drill down to the precinct level — if you want to know what’s happening on your block, that’s the right tool.
All statistics in this article are sourced directly from the NYPD’s official CompStat citywide report (week ending 5/17/2026) and the NYPD press releases dated May 4, 2026 and April 2, 2026, all published at nyc.gov. All crime statistics are preliminary and subject to further analysis, revision, or change.
Primary sources:
• NYPD CompStat Citywide Report (PDF, fetched 6/1/2026)
• NYPD Press Release: Fewest Murders in Recorded History — First Four Months (May 4, 2026)
• NYPD Press Release: Fewest Murders & Shooting Incidents — Q1 (April 2, 2026)
