Quick answer: Yes — for most New Yorkers, your neighborhood is statistically safer right now than it was a year ago, and in several categories safer than at any point on record. Through the first three months of 2026, the NYPD recorded the fewest murders the city has ever logged in a Q1 (54), tied an all-time low for shooting incidents (139), and pushed major crime down 5.3% citywide. The latest weekly numbers (week ending April 26, 2026) extended those drops, with murders down 55.6% versus the same week last year. The “but” is real and worth knowing: rapes and hate crimes are both up year-to-date, and a handful of subway lines and precincts are not moving in the same direction as the citywide line.
Here is what the trend actually means for the decision you make tonight about which train to take, what time to walk home, and whether to renew your lease.
The headline numbers, decoded
The NYPD’s first-quarter 2026 report — released April 2, 2026 by Commissioner Jessica S. Tisch and Mayor Zohran Kwame Mamdani — is unusual because it sets multiple historical records simultaneously. The 54 murders recorded January through March is the lowest Q1 figure since the NYPD began tracking the modern dataset. The previous all-time Q1 low was 60 murders, set in 2018. The 139 shooting incidents tied the Q1 2025 record, which itself was the safest first quarter the city had ever seen. Major crime — the seven-category index that combines murder, rape, robbery, felony assault, burglary, grand larceny, and grand larceny auto — fell to 25,582 incidents, down 1,421 from the same period in 2025.
The most recent weekly CompStat report, covering April 20–26, 2026, shows the trend continuing rather than flattening. Murders that week dropped from 9 the prior year to 4 (–55.6%). Robbery fell from 288 to 227 (–21.2%). Felony assault dropped from 675 to 524 (–22.4%). Burglary fell from 258 to 197 (–23.6%). The one major-category outlier in that week was grand larceny, which ticked up 1.1% (903 vs. 893) — a category dominated by package theft, retail theft, and pickpocketing rather than violent crime.
Anchored against history (so the percentages mean something)
Percent changes are easy to wave around and easy to manipulate. Anchored against history, here is what the 2026 numbers actually look like:
- Murder: 54 in Q1 2026 vs. 60 in Q1 2018 (the prior modern record). That is not a one-year fluke — it is the lowest figure on the chart, period.
- Shooting incidents: 139 in Q1 2026, tied with Q1 2025. Two consecutive years at the all-time low is the strongest signal we have that gun violence is structurally lower than it has been in any modern New Yorker’s adult life.
- Burglary: 2,587 in Q1 2026, down 20.6% year-over-year. The NYPD calls this the second-lowest Q1 burglary total in recorded history.
- Public housing: Major crime in NYCHA developments fell 7.2% YTD; murders inside public housing dropped from 8 to 3 (–62.5%); shooting victims fell from 29 to 21 (–27.6%). The NYPD describes this as the safest start to any year on record for NYCHA residents.
If you are reading the same crime numbers you read in 2019 and feeling like the city is more dangerous now, the data does not support that intuition. The data supports a different intuition: visible disorder (open-air drug use, unsheltered homelessness, mental-health crises in transit) is real and concentrated, but the violent-crime numbers underneath have been moving the opposite direction for two consecutive years.
Where the trend is not going your way
Two categories deserve a separate paragraph because they are moving up while everything else moves down.
Rape. Q1 2026 reported 523 rapes citywide, up 10.1% from Q1 2025 (475). The NYPD has consistently noted that rape reporting has changed under recent statutory definition expansions, which complicates year-over-year comparison. But the raw number is up, and any resident considering personal safety planning — particularly around late-night travel and unfamiliar buildings — should treat this category as the exception to the citywide trend, not part of it.
Hate crimes. Q1 2026 confirmed 143 hate crime incidents, up 11.7% from 128 in Q1 2025. Anti-Jewish incidents accounted for 78 of the 143 (roughly 55%). If you live in or move through neighborhoods with concentrated Jewish populations — Borough Park, Crown Heights, Williamsburg, parts of the Upper West Side, parts of Riverdale — the citywide downward trend is not what you are feeling on the ground, and the data confirms that.
Borough-level reality check
The Bronx led the city in major-crime reduction with a 9.4% drop (6,298 incidents vs. 6,950 — a decrease of 650 crimes year-to-date). That is the largest borough-level move in either direction this quarter. If you watched the Bronx get singled out in headlines a few years ago for the wrong reasons, the 2026 number flips that framing: the borough is currently leading the city’s safety improvement, not lagging it.
Citywide, the 5.3% major-crime drop is the cumulative effect of all five boroughs trending down together — which is itself notable, because in many years one or two boroughs offset gains elsewhere. This year they all moved the same direction.
What this means for your week
If you are deciding whether to take the train home after a late shift, the data says your statistical risk on a typical weeknight is lower this spring than it was last spring. If you are deciding whether to sign a lease in a neighborhood you were nervous about a year ago, pull up the precinct-level numbers on the NYPD’s borough and precinct page and check them against the citywide trend — most precincts are moving with the citywide line, but a handful are not, and the precinct-level data is more useful to you than any borough average.
If you are a parent making decisions about a teenager’s commute, the gun-violence numbers are the ones you should anchor on. Two consecutive Q1s at the all-time low for shooting incidents is the most decision-relevant data point in this report.
If you are a small-business owner thinking about retail theft, package theft, or shoplifting, the citywide trend is not your trend. Grand larceny is the one major category that has not dropped meaningfully and ticked up slightly in the most recent week. Plan accordingly.
How to verify any of this yourself
Every number in this article comes from one of three official sources, and you can pull them directly without going through a news organization. The NYPD’s Citywide Crime Statistics page is updated weekly and includes the PDF that runs the 7-day, 28-day, and year-to-date numbers. The CompStat 2.0 dashboard lets you drill down by precinct. The weekly citywide PDF is the underlying document. If a number you read somewhere does not match those three sources, the official sources are the ones to trust.
Bottom line
“Is my neighborhood getting safer” is the wrong question for a city this big. The right question is “which categories are moving which direction in my precinct, my building, my commute.” The citywide answer right now is: violent crime, gun violence, and burglary are all moving down hard, with public-housing residents and Bronx residents seeing the biggest gains. Rape and hate crimes are moving up. Grand larceny is roughly flat. Anchor your personal decisions to the categories that actually shape your day, not to the headline.
Frequently asked questions
Is NYC crime really at a record low in 2026?
For murder and shooting incidents in the first quarter, yes — the 54 murders recorded January through March 2026 is the lowest Q1 on record (beating the prior 2018 low of 60), and the 139 shooting incidents tied the all-time Q1 low set the year before. Major crime overall fell 5.3%. Some categories — rape and hate crimes — moved up.
Which NYC neighborhoods got safer the fastest in 2026?
The Bronx led with a 9.4% drop in major crime (down 650 incidents YTD vs. Q1 2025). Public housing developments citywide saw a 7.2% drop in major crime, with murder down 62.5% inside NYCHA and the safest start to any year on record there.
Is gun violence going up or down in NYC?
Down. Q1 2026 recorded 139 shooting incidents — tied with Q1 2025 for the lowest Q1 ever measured. Shooting victim counts (163) tied Q1 2025 as the second-lowest on record, behind 2017’s 161.
Where do I check NYPD crime stats myself?
The NYPD’s Citywide Crime Statistics page publishes a new PDF weekly. CompStat 2.0 lets you filter by precinct. NYC OpenData has the underlying records.
Are hate crimes going up in NYC in 2026?
Yes. The NYPD confirmed 143 hate crimes in Q1 2026, up 11.7% from 128 in Q1 2025. Anti-Jewish incidents accounted for 55% of the total (78 of 143).
Sources: NYPD Q1 2026 Press Release (April 2, 2026); NYPD Citywide CompStat Report, week ending April 26, 2026; NYC OpenData NYPD Complaint dataset.
