Is Your NYC Neighborhood Actually Getting Safer? A Decoder for May 2026

NYC major crime fell 5.3% in Q1 2026 with the lowest first-quarter murder total ever recorded. Here’s what the trend means for your block, by borough, by subway line, and by hour of day.

Short answer: Yes — for most New Yorkers, your neighborhood is statistically safer in May 2026 than it was a year ago, and dramatically safer than it was five years ago. Citywide, major crime is down 5.3% through the first quarter of 2026, with 1,421 fewer reported crimes than the same window in 2025. Murders just hit the lowest first-quarter total in NYPD recorded history. Burglaries dropped 20.6% — the second-lowest level ever measured. But “safer on average” doesn’t mean “safer on your block,” and the trend lines split sharply by borough, by crime type, and by hour of day. Here is what the data actually says about whether your neighborhood is part of the improvement.

What the numbers say, in plain English

The NYPD’s most recent CompStat report covers the week ending May 10, 2026. Across the seven major felony categories the department tracks — murder, rape, robbery, felony assault, burglary, grand larceny, and grand larceny auto — the 28-day rolling total shows declines in five of seven. Murder fell 51.7% over the prior 28 days versus the same window in 2025 (14 versus 29). Robbery fell 16.2% (1,049 versus 1,252). Burglary dropped 15.3% for the week. The only categories rising at the city level are reported rape, which the NYPD attributes in large part to a 2024 state law that broadened the legal definition, and grand larceny auto, which is now down 3.6% year-to-date after rising earlier in the quarter.

That is the citywide picture. Now translate it to a resident decision: if you live in New York City and you are trying to decide whether your daily routine — your walk to the train, your late-night bodega run, your kid’s commute home — should change based on the data, the honest answer is that the underlying risk has gone down in 2026 across nearly every category that affects ordinary household decisions. Burglary, robbery, and murder are the three crimes that most often show up in resident worry surveys, and all three are at or near record lows.

Comparing today to the historical baselines

The longer the baseline, the more dramatic the improvement looks. Three reference points matter:

Versus 2025 (year-prior comparison): Major crime down 5.3% for Q1. That is the smallest of the three lenses and the most honest measure of momentum, because 2025 was itself the safest year on record for gun violence in NYC. Beating a record year by another five percent is not a small thing.

Versus 2018 (most-recent comparable record year): The 54 murders recorded in the first three months of 2026 beat the previous all-time low of 60 murders set in 2018. That is the first quarter NYC has ever recorded under modern reporting — every prior best had been at least 60. Burglaries at 2,587 are the second-lowest first-quarter total in recorded NYPD history.

Versus the 1990 peak: Total major crime in 2025 finished at 121,652. In 1990, the same seven categories totaled 527,257. That is a 76.9% decline over 35 years. Murder alone fell from 2,262 in 1990 to 309 in 2025 — an 86.3% drop. The neighborhood your parents warned you about in 1990 is mathematically not the same neighborhood today, even if the street grid hasn’t changed.

Borough-by-borough: who’s pulling the average up, who’s pulling it down

The citywide 5.3% drop masks real variation. Year-to-date through Q1 2026:

The Bronx is leading the improvement with major crime down 9.4% — 650 fewer reported crimes than the same period in 2025. That is the largest absolute reduction of any borough. The exception: Bronx murder is up by two cases year-over-year (21 versus 19). A two-case change inside a borough this size is statistically thin, but it is the only borough where the murder line tilted the wrong way.

Manhattan major crime is down roughly 7%, with murder down more than 44% (5 versus 9).

Brooklyn is down about 1% overall, but murder fell more than 57% (12 versus 28). When the borough’s largest crime category drops by half and overall crime only drops by one percent, that means lower-tier crimes — primarily grand larceny and felony assault — held steady. Translation for residents: violent crime risk is down sharply, property crime is roughly flat.

Queens is down a bit more than 2%, with murder down nearly 6% (16 versus 17).

Staten Island is down 5% and has recorded zero murders so far in 2026. Zero is the cleanest data point in the entire report.

Where the trend is actually getting worse

A trend article that only shows improvement is propaganda, not decoding. Three places the numbers moved against residents:

Reported rape is up 10.1% citywide for the quarter (523 versus 475). The NYPD attributes the rise in significant part to a September 2024 New York State law that broadened the legal definition of rape to include additional forms of sexual assault, plus expanded outreach encouraging survivors to report. A change in what counts as a reported rape will mechanically increase the count even if the underlying behavior is flat. The NYPD now publishes a breakdown showing how many of each year’s reported rapes occurred in prior years — for Q1 2026, 527 of the 2,048 total rape reports involved incidents that happened in the same year; the remainder were prior-year disclosures. That mix matters: the year-on-year comparison is comparing two different reporting environments, not two different streets.

Confirmed hate crimes are up 11.7% for Q1 (143 versus 128), and 55% of confirmed hate crimes (78 of 143) were classified as anti-Jewish, despite Jewish residents being roughly 10% of the city’s population. Anti-Muslim hate crimes rose 140% (12 versus 5) from a smaller base. If you live in a neighborhood with a visible Jewish, Muslim, Asian, or LGBT community, the hate-crime trend is the one data line that argues for situational awareness even as overall crime falls.

Shooting incidents in March 2026 alone ticked up 23.4% versus March 2025 (58 versus 47), even though the full-quarter total (139) tied the record low. A single hot month inside a record-low quarter is consistent with normal variance in a small-number category, but it is the line to watch on the next quarterly release.

Subway and public-housing trends

Two specific environments residents ask about repeatedly:

The subway: Overall subway crime in Q1 2026 is down 1.3% (537 versus 544). Subway grand larceny — which is mostly phone snatches and pickpocketing — is down 9.1% to an all-time low excluding the pandemic year of 2021. Felony assault on the subway fell 6.6%. The week-ending-May-10 CompStat shows transit complaints up 28.1% week-over-week against a small base of 32 the prior year, which is the kind of swing that disappears when the 28-day rolling total smooths it out. Riding the train in May 2026 carries roughly the same statistical risk it carried in 2009 — the last pre-pandemic year that posted comparable subway crime totals.

NYCHA public housing: Public-housing residents are seeing the largest improvement of any defined population in the city. Overall crime in NYCHA developments is down 7.2% year-to-date (1,266 versus 1,364). Murders are down 62.5% (3 versus 8). Shooting incidents are down 29.6%. Robberies are down 27.3%. The NYPD calls this the safest start to any year in recorded NYCHA history for gun violence — and that claim checks out against the long-run baseline.

So is your block safer?

The honest decoding works like this. If you live in any of the five boroughs, the city-level and borough-level data both say major crime is falling. If you live in NYCHA housing, the improvement is larger than the citywide average. If you ride the subway daily, your daily-decision risk is at its lowest non-pandemic level since 2009. If you live in a Jewish, Muslim, or Asian neighborhood, the overall-crime improvement is real but hate-crime risk specifically is rising and should inform your situational awareness in a way that the general numbers don’t capture. If you are a young person or the parent of one, the NYPD’s Youth Safety Zones program reports a 55% reduction in youth-related crime in deployment areas during deployment hours since September 2025.

The single best resident-level tool for “what about my specific precinct” is the NYPD’s Borough and Precinct Crime Statistics page, which publishes the same seven-category CompStat numbers broken down by patrol precinct. Find your precinct (the NYPD precinct finder works from any street address) and read the same Week-to-Date, 28-Day, and Year-to-Date columns for your actual neighborhood instead of relying on the city average.

How to read the next CompStat release without panicking or celebrating

Three rules residents can keep in their back pocket:

1. The 28-day total matters more than the weekly total. A weekly murder count of 2 versus 5 is a 60% decline that means almost nothing — both numbers are small enough that one event moves the percentage dramatically. The 28-day rolling total smooths that out. The year-to-date column is more reliable still.

2. Reported and confirmed are different. Hate crimes have two numbers because the NYPD investigates each report and confirms or rejects whether it legally qualifies. Rape reports now include prior-year incidents being disclosed for the first time. Always check whether you are reading the reported or confirmed line.

3. Compare like to like. A Q1 number compared to a full-year number is meaningless. A 2026 number compared to a 2020 number is comparing a pandemic to a non-pandemic year. The cleanest comparisons are same-quarter same-categories year-over-year, which is what the NYPD’s quarterly press releases generally publish.

Frequently asked questions

What is the current NYC crime rate trend in 2026?

Major crime is down 5.3% citywide through the first quarter of 2026 compared to the same period in 2025, with 1,421 fewer reported crimes. Murder and burglary both hit historic lows. The most recent weekly CompStat report (week ending May 10, 2026) shows declines in five of seven major categories continuing into May.

Is NYC’s murder rate really at an all-time low?

Yes, for the first quarter specifically. NYC recorded 54 murders in January through March 2026, beating the previous all-time first-quarter low of 60 murders set in 2018. That is the lowest Q1 murder total in the modern NYPD record. The full-year 2025 total of 309 murders was also the lowest annual total in modern records.

Which NYC borough has the biggest crime drop in 2026?

The Bronx has the largest improvement year-to-date, with major crime down 9.4% — 650 fewer reported crimes than Q1 2025. Manhattan is down roughly 7%, Staten Island is down 5%, Queens is down a bit more than 2%, and Brooklyn is down about 1% overall but with murder down more than 57%.

Is the NYC subway safe in 2026?

Statistically, yes — at its safest non-pandemic level since 2009. Overall subway crime is down 1.3% in Q1 2026 (537 incidents versus 544 in Q1 2025). Grand larceny on the subway is down 9.1% to an all-time low excluding 2021. Felony assault on the subway is down 6.6%.

Why are reported rape numbers rising in NYC?

Reported rape is up 10.1% citywide for Q1 2026 (523 versus 475). The NYPD attributes this rise in significant part to a September 2024 New York State law that broadened the legal definition of rape to include additional forms of sexual assault, plus expanded outreach encouraging survivors to come forward. The 2026 total also includes a large share of prior-year incidents being reported for the first time.

What is happening with hate crimes in NYC?

Confirmed hate crimes rose 11.7% in Q1 2026 (143 versus 128). The majority — 55% (78 of 143) — were classified as anti-Jewish. Anti-Muslim confirmed hate crimes rose 140% (12 versus 5) from a smaller base. The NYPD began publishing both confirmed and reported hate-crime totals monthly starting in 2026 to improve transparency.

How do I look up crime statistics for my specific NYC neighborhood?

Use the NYPD’s Borough and Precinct Crime Statistics page at nyc.gov/site/nypd/stats/crime-statistics/borough-and-precinct-crime-stats.page. Find your patrol precinct using the NYPD precinct finder, then read the same Week-to-Date, 28-Day, and Year-to-Date columns for your actual precinct. NYC OpenData also publishes incident-level complaint, arrest, and shooting data for residents who want to map specific addresses or blocks.