If you walked outside this morning expecting late-May warmth and instead got a humid breeze and gray sky, welcome to NYC spring. According to the National Weather Service forecast office in Upton, the next seven days bring a wet stretch through Friday, a cooler weekend, and a recovery that should set up nicely for outdoor plans by Sunday. Here is what to expect day-by-day and how to dress for it without overthinking it.
The week at a glance
- Thursday and overnight: Mostly cloudy, breezy, mild — highs near 71. Showers arrive late, with patchy fog after 2 a.m. and wind gusts to around 33 mph.
- Friday: Showers likely, possibly a thunderstorm. Cool — temperatures steady around 57. Chance of precipitation 70%.
- Saturday: A 20% chance of lingering showers before 2 p.m., then partly sunny. High near 63, breezy from the northwest.
- Sunday: Conditions continue to improve. Cooler nights, recovering days.
You can pull the live, updating forecast for Manhattan any time at forecast.weather.gov.
How to dress this week
Thursday: the warm setup before the rain
This is the most pleasant day of the week. Lightweight long pants or a midi skirt, a tee, and a packable rain shell tied around your waist or stuffed in your bag. Skip the wool layers — 71 with humidity will feel warmer than it sounds. If you’re commuting home after 9 p.m., the shell becomes a windbreaker.
Friday: the day to actually layer
A steady 57 with rain and possible thunder is the trickiest combination of the week. The instinct is to grab a heavy coat, but you’ll overheat on the subway. Instead: long-sleeve base layer, a mid-weight sweater or fleece, a real rain jacket (not a windbreaker — they soak through), waterproof shoes if you have them, and an umbrella you don’t mind losing. If you walk your dog, do it before 7 a.m. or after the heaviest band moves through.
Saturday and Sunday: classic spring
Highs in the low 60s with sunshine returning is the sweet spot — light pants, a tee, a flannel or light jacket you can shed by lunch. Mornings will feel chillier than the daytime numbers suggest because of the northwest wind. A baseball cap helps cut the sun glare off wet pavement and softens the wind.
Pollen and asthma watch
The NYC Department of Health issued a 2026 Health Advisory reminding residents that tree pollens — maple, birch, and oak — typically peak in late April and early May, and that asthma-related ER visits in the city historically climb during this stretch. The Department’s full advisory and clinical guidance is at nyc.gov/health.
The good news: Friday’s rain will knock pollen down significantly. The catch: as soon as things dry out Saturday morning, levels rebound. If you have allergies or asthma, this is a great week to take medication on schedule rather than reactively, plan harder outdoor workouts for right after the rain Friday afternoon, and check a pollen tracker before long runs. The Weather Channel posts a daily Manhattan-specific pollen index at weather.com.
How to time outdoor workouts this week
- Run: Thursday morning before the late showers, or Saturday late morning once things clear. Avoid Friday entirely unless you genuinely love rain miles.
- Bike: Saturday afternoon and Sunday — the northwest wind will be brisk but manageable, and pavement will be drier than Friday’s slick.
- Walk the dog: Long walks Thursday before sundown, short walks Friday between bands. Weekend is wide open.
- Picnic or outdoor brunch: Sunday is the play. Saturday works if you’re willing to roll with cooler temps and a flannel.
Safety notes
- Thursday night gusts to 33 mph mean loose patio furniture and umbrellas should come in.
- Friday’s thunderstorm risk is small but real — if you hear thunder while outdoors, head inside for 30 minutes after the last rumble.
- Wet leaves on bike paths and stone bridges in Central and Prospect Parks stay slippery well after the rain stops. Slow down on descents through Saturday morning.
The bottom line
This is a layering week, not a coat week, and not a sundress week. Pack a rain shell every morning through Friday, then trade it for a flannel Saturday and Sunday. By next Monday the forecast trend is back into the 70s — so think of the next three days as the price of admission for the warm weekend on the other side.
